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Population Forcasting or Population Estimation

الكلية كلية الهندسة     القسم  الهندسة البيئية     المرحلة 3
أستاذ المادة جبار حمود عبد النبي البيضاني       13/07/2018 06:30:41
In the design of any waterworks project it is necessary to estimate the amount of water that is required. This involves determining the number of people who will be served and their per capita water consumption, together with an analysis of the factors that may operate to affect consumption.
It is usual to express water consumption in liters or gallons per capita per day, obtaining this figure by dividing the total number of people in the city into the total daily water consumption. For many purposes the average daily consumption is convenient. It is obtained by dividing the population into the total daily consumption averaged over one year. It must be realized, however, that using the total population may , in some cases, result in serious inaccuracy, since a large proportion of the population may be served by privately owned wells. A more accurate figure would be the daily consumption per person served.
Since population is always a relevant factor in estimating future water use, it is necessary to predict, in some manner, what the future population will be. The date in the future for which the projection is made depends on the particular component of the system which is being designed. Elements of the system which are relatively easy to expand tend to have shorter design lives, hence population projection periods may range from as little as 5 to as many as 50 years.
Estimation population in the future is another matter. It is certain that estimate will be wrong in some degree and we can only to be as reasonable as possible in selecting an appropriate technique. Through knowledge of the community and external factors which may affect its growth are very important in such analysis. (Terence J. McGhee, Six Edition)


المادة المعروضة اعلاه هي مدخل الى المحاضرة المرفوعة بواسطة استاذ(ة) المادة . وقد تبدو لك غير متكاملة . حيث يضع استاذ المادة في بعض الاحيان فقط الجزء الاول من المحاضرة من اجل الاطلاع على ما ستقوم بتحميله لاحقا . في نظام التعليم الالكتروني نوفر هذه الخدمة لكي نبقيك على اطلاع حول محتوى الملف الذي ستقوم بتحميله .