Lecture_28_Project Evaluation

The main objective in the analysis through PERT is to find out the completion for a particular
event within specified date. The PERT approach takes into account the uncertainties. The three
time values are associated with each activity
1. Optimistic time – It is the shortest possible time in which the activity can be finished. It
assumes that every thing goes very well. This is denoted by t0.
2. Most likely time – It is the estimate of the normal time the activity would take. This
assumes normal delays. If a graph is plotted in the time of completion and the frequency
of completion in that time period, then most likely time will represent the highest
frequency of occurrence. This is denoted by tm.
3. Pessimistic time – It represents the longest time the activity could take if everything goes
wrong. As in optimistic estimate, this value may be such that only one in hundred or one
in twenty will take time longer than this value. This is denoted by tp.
In PERT calculation, all values are used to obtain the percent expected value.
1. Expected time – It is the average time an activity will take if it were to be repeated on
large number of times and is based on the assumption that the activity time follows Beta
distribution, this is given by
te = ( t0 + 4 tm + tp ) / 6
2. The variance for the activity is given by
?2 = [(tp – to) / 6] 2
Worked Examples
Example 1
For the project
Task: A B C D E F G H I J K
Least time: 4 5 8 2 4 6 8 5 3 5 6
Greatest time: 8 10 12 7 10 15 16 9 7 11 13
Most likely time: 5 7 11 3 7 9 12 6 5 8 9
Find the earliest and latest expected time to each event and also critical path in the network.
Solution
Task Least time(t0) Greatest time
(tp)
Most likely time
(tm)
Expected time
(to + tp + 4tm)/6
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
4
5
8
2
4
6
8
5
3
5
6
8
10
12
7
10
15
16
9
7
11
13
5
7
11
3
7
9
12
6
5
8
9
5.33
7.17
10.67
3.5
7
9.5
12
6.33
5
8
9.17
2
Task Expected
time (te)
Start Finish Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Total float
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
5.33
7.17
10.67
3.5
7
9.5
12
6.33
5
8
9.17
0
0
5.33
0
16
3.5
3.5
23
23
28
29.33
0
8.83
5.33
10
16
13.5
18.5
23
25.5
30.5
29.33
5.33
7.17
16
3.5
23
13
15.5
29.33
28
36
31.5
5.33
16
16
13.5
23
23
30.5
29.33
30.5
38.5
38.5
0
8.83
0
10
0
10
15
0
2.5
2.5
0
The network is
The critical path is A ?C ?E ? H ? K
3
Example 2
A project has the following characteristics
Activity Most optimistic time
(a)
Most pessimistic time
(b)
Most likely time
(m)
(1 – 2)
(2 – 3)
(2 – 4)
(3 – 5)
(4 – 5)
(4 – 6)
(5 – 7)
(6 – 7)
(7 – 8)
(7 – 9)
(8 – 10)
(9 – 10)
1
1
1
3
2
3
4
6
2
5
1
3
5
3
5
5
4
7
6
8
6
8
3
7
1.5
2
3
4
3
5
5
7
4
6
2
5
Construct a PERT network. Find the critical path and variance for each event.
Solution
Activity (a) (b) (m) (4m) te
(a + b + 4m)/6
v
[(b – a) / 6]2
(1 – 2)
(2 – 3)
(2 – 4)
(3 – 5)
(4 – 5)
(4 – 6)
(5 – 7)
(6 – 7)
(7 – 8)
(7 – 9)
(8 – 10)
(9 – 10)
1
1
1
3
2
3
4
6
2
5
1
3
5
3
5
5
4
7
6
8
6
8
3
7
1.5
2
3
4
3
5
5
7
4
6
2
5
6
8
12
16
12
20
20
28
16
24
8
20
2
2
3
4
3
5
5
7
4
6.17
2
5
4/9
1/9
4/9
1/9
1/9
4/9
1/9
1/9
4/9
1/4
1/9
4/9
The network is constructed as shown below
4
The critical path = 1 ? 2 ? 4 ? 6 ? 7 ?9 ?10
5